Kenai Chinook Estimates, Indices and Inseason Run Summaries


Location: Kenai River (Chinook)
Species: Chinook - Late Run
Method: Sonar

The selected years are color-coded in the graphs below:

  • 2025
  • 2024
  • 2023
  • 2022
  • 2021
Daily Counts
Cumulative

Description: In 2015 the department began managing Kenai River king salmon runs using an ARIS sonar station located at river mile 14. In 2017 the Department modified the Kenai River king salmon escapement goals from goals based on king salmon of all sizes, to escapement goals based on large king salmon (fish over 34 inches) only. The early-run king salmon optimal escapement goal range is 3,900 to 6,600 large king salmon (> 34 inches). In 2020 the late-run king salmon escapement goal was modified to an optimal escapement goal range is 15,000 to 30,000 large king salmon (> 34 inches). The ARIS sonar counts found on this page are the daily and seasonal cumulative passage estimates of the number of large king salmon passing the sonar site. Additionally, the past years counts displayed on this page have been converted to large fish counts for comparison. These estimated numbers of large king salmon passing the sonar site are the primary tool for the Kenai River king salmon assessment program that also includes a sport angler harvest survey, and a netting program. The data gathered in these assessments are used together to determine king salmon run strength. This data in conjunction with Fishery Management Plans, allows fishery managers to determine if emergency order regulation changes to the fisheries are needed during the season to help ensure that the escapement goals are achieved. These abundance assessments as well as information about the status of the run and inseason management actions can be viewed via this website on the above tabs. Information is also available by telephone at (907)262-9097.

Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Early Run: 3,900 - 6,600
Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Late Run: 15,000 - 30,000 (Graphed above)

Contact: Area Management Biologist,
9072602920

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

58 records returned for the years selected. Dashes indicate days with no count.
[Export results in Excel format or JSON format]

Date
2025		 Count
2025		 Cumulative
2025		 Cumulative
2024		 Cumulative
2023		 Cumulative
2022		 Cumulative
2021		 Notes for
2025
Aug-27 - 421 6,630 13,922 13,425 11,832  
Aug-26 - 421 6,630 13,776 13,425 11,832  
Aug-25 - 421 6,630 13,679 13,425 11,832  
Aug-24 - 421 6,630 13,612 13,425 11,832  
Aug-23 - 421 6,630 - 13,425 11,832  
Aug-22 - 421 6,630 - 13,425 11,832  
Aug-21 - 421 6,630 13,436 13,425 11,832  
Aug-20 - 421 6,630 13,257 13,425 11,832  
Aug-19 - 421 6,630 13,111 13,425 11,754  
Aug-18 - 421 6,582 12,911 13,338 11,656  
Aug-17 - 421 6,534 12,747 13,253 11,486  
Aug-16 - 421 6,510 12,552 13,124 11,419  
Aug-15 - 421 6,408 12,381 12,961 11,279  
Aug-14 - 421 6,306 12,161 12,779 11,151  
Aug-13 - 421 6,240 12,045 12,567 10,884  
Aug-12 - 421 6,143 11,814 12,257 10,684  
Aug-11 - 421 6,070 11,559 11,887 10,491  
Aug-10 - 421 6,008 11,347 11,626 10,303  
Aug-09 - 421 5,917 11,111 11,407 9,757  
Aug-08 - 421 5,790 10,844 11,270 9,248  
Aug-07 - 421 5,687 10,424 11,124 8,872  
Aug-06 - 421 5,349 9,677 10,875 8,419  
Aug-05 - 421 4,932 9,313 10,487 8,064  
Aug-04 - 421 4,817 9,058 10,024 7,747  
Aug-03 - 421 4,624 8,889 9,711 7,504  
Aug-02 - 421 4,298 8,555 9,377 6,729  
Aug-01 - 421 4,056 7,960 9,001 6,420  
Jul-31 - 421 3,875 7,582 8,686 6,189  
Jul-30 - 421 3,682 7,260 8,189 5,818  
Jul-29 - 421 3,519 6,980 7,825 5,636  
Jul-28 - 421 3,308 6,725 7,394 5,296  
Jul-27 - 421 3,133 6,481 7,077 5,077  
Jul-26 - 421 2,952 6,250 6,531 4,864  
Jul-25 - 421 2,777 5,880 6,136 4,610  
Jul-24 - 421 2,626 5,467 5,675 4,452  
Jul-23 - 421 2,503 5,036 5,329 4,270  
Jul-22 - 421 2,286 4,600 4,927 4,142  
Jul-21 - 421 2,244 4,309 4,539 3,953  
Jul-20 - 421 2,123 4,114 4,142 3,717  
Jul-19 - 421 2,002 3,811 3,832 3,207  
Jul-18 - 421 1,827 3,708 3,419 2,872  
Jul-17 - 421 1,658 3,544 2,982 2,581  
Jul-16 - 421 1,489 3,016 2,655 2,363  
Jul-15 - 421 1,317 2,469 2,352 2,113  
Jul-14 - 421 1,097 2,244 2,147 1,871  
Jul-13 - 421 848 1,886 1,890 1,714  
Jul-12 - 421 745 1,654 1,751 1,538  
Jul-11 - 421 681 1,369 1,597 1,423  
Jul-10 - 421 520 1,163 1,475 1,303  
Jul-09 - 421 423 1,018 1,162 1,121  
Jul-08 - 421 320 733 950 994  
Jul-07 - 421 277 575 731 812  
Jul-06 - 421 247 484 537 709  
Jul-05 - 421 175 393 404 606  
Jul-04 - 421 96 314 307 515  
Jul-03 175 421 48 211 222 369  
Jul-02 126 246 36 120 172 253  
Jul-01 120 120 24 60 123 140  

Non-Sonar Tools

Late Run Netting Project CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at river mile 8.6.

Late Run Sport CPUE Index

The Sport Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon in the lower Kenai River and is based on the success rate of anglers fishing downstream of the Sterling Highway Bridge Crossing in Soldotna.

Late Run Netting Project Large Fish CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at the sonar station located at river mile 8.6.

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

Late Run Kenai River Chinook Inseason Summary for Wed. Aug 4

KENAI RIVER LATE-RUN KING SALMON SUMMARY #06

King Salmon Run Update:

The highest daily passage of the season occurred on August 3 with an estimate of 775 large king salmon. This brought the cumulative estimated passage through August 3 to 7,504 large king salmon. The optimal escapement goal is 15,000 – 30,000 large king salmon. Inseason assessment of the king salmon run consists of the sonar at RM 14 on the Kenai River mainstem, a sport angler creel survey of the lower river, inriver test netting for age, sex, length composition, and sampling of king salmon harvest in the east side set net commercial fishery. These information sources, along with historical data allow ADF&G managers to formulate inseason run projections of estimated escapement, harvest, and total run of large Kenai River king salmon. Figure 1 is a table of the 2021 projections using the most current data. The inseason projection of escapement using the historical mean run timing is approximately 10,899 large fish, an increase from previous projections that had been holding around 10,000 for the past week. Inseason run projections continue to stabilize at this point in the run (70% AVG run timing).

In response to the inseason projections of escapement being less than 15,000 large king salmon at the close of the king salmon sport fishing season, ADF&G issued an emergency order prohibiting the use of bait and multiple hooks in the Kenai River from the outlet of Skilak Lake downstream to the mouth effective 12:01 a.m. August 1 through 11:59 p.m. August 15, 2021. Additionally, the commercial drift gillnet fishery is restricted from fishing in the Central District within one mile of the Kenai Peninsula shoreline north of the Kenai River and within one and one-half miles of the Kenai Peninsula shoreline south of the Kenai River; and the commercial set gillnet fishery in the Upper Subdistrict and the Central District is closed until the Kenai Late-run king salmon escapement goal is achieved.

Fishery Update:

CPUE data collected from the netting program indicates a catch of all sizes and large king salmon are below average.

The preseason outlook for the 2021 late-run can be found at:

http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fishing/pdfs/sport/byarea/southcentral/2021KenaiLateRunOutlook.pdf

Water Conditions: 

Water levels throughout the Kenai drainage are below average. Water temperature is above average.

CFS at Soldotna Bridge was 12,000 and 8.94 ft

CFS at Skilak Lake Outlet was 10,400 and 10.43 ft

CFS at Cooper Landing was 4,750 and 9.71 ft

Water Temperature was 59 degrees Fahrenheit at the sonar site.

This information was compiled based on raw and historical data for inseason management purposes.

Final data is subject to change.

Figure 1. 2021 Inseason Summary Estimates for Kenai River Late-run Large Chinook Salmon

Sonar data thru: 3-Aug   ESSN Summary          
Current Inriver Chinook Assessment Information ESSN Total Chinook Salmon harvest 1,234 (Fish Ticket Catch Report)
Most Recent Daily Sonar  775 ESSN Large Chinook Harvests (all stocks) Based on Inseason Length Data 271
Cumulative Sonar to Date 7,504 Percentage Large Chinook in ESSN Sample Thru  3-Aug 22%  
Est. Creel Harvest to Date  134 Min, mean, and max of Large ESSN Chinook that were of Kenai origin (2010-2018 data)        
Creel Harvest Above Sonar  70 Kenai Large Contribution   60% 69% 79%  
Creel Harvest Below Sonar  64 ESSN Large Kenai Harvest to Date  163 187 214  
Creel All Sizes of Chinook  342 ESSN Projected Kenai Large Harvest 163 187 214  
                     
                     
Projected end of season estimates for large late-run Kenai River Chinook salmon.          
Run Timing Run to Date Estimated run to Sonar RM14 Estimated inriver run (includes spawning & harvet below sonar) Estimated Escapement (includes spawners below sonar) Estimated Sport Harvest Above Sonar RM 14 to Skilak Lake Estimated Sport Harvest Below Sonar RM 14 Estimated Total Inriver Sport Harvest Estimated ESSN Harvest Estimated Total Run Estimated Exploitation
On time 70.75% 10,606 11,121 10,899 143 79 222 187 11,236 3.64%
                     
Early Timing Scenarios                
1 early 73.67% 10,186 10,683 10,461 143 79 222 187 10,815 3.78%
2 early 76.84% 9,766 10,246 10,024 143 79 222 187 10,395 3.94%
                     
Late Timing Scenarios                
1 late 68.23% 10,998 11,530 11,307 143 79 222 187 11,627 3.52%
2 late 65.90% 11,387 11,935 11,713 143 79 222 187 12,016 3.41%
* Retention of king salmon is prohibited in personal use fisheries for 2021