Kenai Chinook Estimates, Indices and Inseason Run Summaries


Location: Kenai River (Chinook)
Species: Chinook - Late Run
Method: Sonar

The selected years are color-coded in the graphs below:

  • 2023
  • 2022
  • 2021
  • 2020
  • 2019
Daily Counts
Cumulative

Description: In 2015 the department began managing Kenai River king salmon runs using an ARIS sonar station located at river mile 14. In 2017 the Department modified the Kenai River king salmon escapement goals from goals based on king salmon of all sizes, to escapement goals based on large king salmon (fish over 34 inches) only. The early-run king salmon optimal escapement goal range is 3,900 to 6,600 large king salmon (> 34 inches). In 2020 the late-run king salmon escapement goal was modified to an optimal escapement goal range is 15,000 to 30,000 large king salmon (> 34 inches). The ARIS sonar counts found on this page are the daily and seasonal cumulative passage estimates of the number of large king salmon passing the sonar site. Additionally, the past years counts displayed on this page have been converted to large fish counts for comparison. These estimated numbers of large king salmon passing the sonar site are the primary tool for the Kenai River king salmon assessment program that also includes a sport angler harvest survey, and a netting program. The data gathered in these assessments are used together to determine king salmon run strength. This data in conjunction with Fishery Management Plans, allows fishery managers to determine if emergency order regulation changes to the fisheries are needed during the season to help ensure that the escapement goals are achieved. These abundance assessments as well as information about the status of the run and inseason management actions can be viewed via this website on the above tabs. Information is also available by telephone at (907)262-9097.

Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Early Run: 3,900 - 6,600
Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Late Run: 15,000 - 30,000 (Graphed above)

Contact: Upper Cook Inlet Area Management Biologist,
(907) 262-9368

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

58 records returned for the years selected. Dashes indicate days with no count.
[Export results in Excel format or JSON format]

Date
2023		 Count
2023		 Cumulative
2023		 Cumulative
2022		 Cumulative
2021		 Cumulative
2020		 Cumulative
2019		 Notes for
2023
Aug-27 146 13,922 13,425 11,832 11,499 11,868  
Aug-26 97 13,776 13,425 11,832 11,499 11,868  
Aug-25 67 13,679 13,425 11,832 11,499 11,868  
Aug-24 176 13,612 13,425 11,832 11,499 11,868  
Aug-23 - 13,436 13,425 11,832 11,499 11,868 No estimates available due to salmon milling in the counting area.
Aug-22 - 13,436 13,425 11,832 11,499 11,868 No estimate available due to salmon milling in the counting area
Aug-21 179 13,436 13,425 11,832 11,499 11,868  
Aug-20 146 13,257 13,425 11,832 11,499 11,868  
Aug-19 200 13,111 13,425 11,754 11,486 11,747  
Aug-18 164 12,911 13,338 11,656 11,413 11,723  
Aug-17 195 12,747 13,253 11,486 11,292 11,687  
Aug-16 171 12,552 13,124 11,419 11,062 11,571  
Aug-15 220 12,381 12,961 11,279 10,813 11,413  
Aug-14 116 12,161 12,779 11,151 10,491 11,298  
Aug-13 231 12,045 12,567 10,884 10,254 11,074  
Aug-12 255 11,814 12,257 10,684 10,066 11,013  
Aug-11 212 11,559 11,887 10,491 9,867 10,898  
Aug-10 236 11,347 11,626 10,303 9,719 10,753  
Aug-09 267 11,111 11,407 9,757 9,616 10,629  
Aug-08 420 10,844 11,270 9,248 9,483 10,538  
Aug-07 747 10,424 11,124 8,872 9,325 10,410  
Aug-06 364 9,677 10,875 8,419 9,185 10,198  
Aug-05 255 9,313 10,487 8,064 8,827 10,059  
Aug-04 169 9,058 10,024 7,747 8,494 9,889  
Aug-03 334 8,889 9,711 7,504 8,089 9,586  
Aug-02 595 8,555 9,377 6,729 7,932 9,434  
Aug-01 378 7,960 9,001 6,420 7,647 9,258  
Jul-31 322 7,582 8,686 6,189 7,465 9,118  
Jul-30 280 7,260 8,189 5,818 7,112 8,906  
Jul-29 255 6,980 7,825 5,636 6,681 8,615  
Jul-28 244 6,725 7,394 5,296 6,456 8,373  
Jul-27 231 6,481 7,077 5,077 6,019 8,118  
Jul-26 370 6,250 6,531 4,864 5,692 7,876  
Jul-25 413 5,880 6,136 4,610 5,438 7,543  
Jul-24 431 5,467 5,675 4,452 5,146 7,213  
Jul-23 436 5,036 5,329 4,270 4,970 6,849  
Jul-22 291 4,600 4,927 4,142 4,787 6,473  
Jul-21 195 4,309 4,539 3,953 4,520 5,970  
Jul-20 303 4,114 4,142 3,717 4,164 5,424  
Jul-19 103 3,811 3,832 3,207 3,879 4,921  
Jul-18 164 3,708 3,419 2,872 3,615 4,551  
Jul-17 528 3,544 2,982 2,581 3,404 4,132  
Jul-16 547 3,016 2,655 2,363 3,153 3,647  
Jul-15 225 2,469 2,352 2,113 2,941 3,343  
Jul-14 358 2,244 2,147 1,871 2,680 3,021  
Jul-13 232 1,886 1,890 1,714 2,220 2,657  
Jul-12 285 1,654 1,751 1,538 1,699 2,397  
Jul-11 206 1,369 1,597 1,423 1,407 2,067  
Jul-10 145 1,163 1,475 1,303 1,249 1,734  
Jul-09 285 1,018 1,162 1,121 989 1,455  
Jul-08 158 733 950 994 831 1,252  
Jul-07 91 575 731 812 728 1,053  
Jul-06 91 484 537 709 583 890  
Jul-05 79 393 404 606 407 630  
Jul-04 103 314 307 515 304 473  
Jul-03 91 211 222 369 219 314  
Jul-02 60 120 172 253 146 235  
Jul-01 60 60 123 140 73 97  

Non-Sonar Tools

Late Run Netting Project CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at river mile 8.6.

Late Run Sport CPUE Index

The Sport Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon in the lower Kenai River and is based on the success rate of anglers fishing downstream of the Sterling Highway Bridge Crossing in Soldotna.

Late Run Netting Project Large Fish CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at the sonar station located at river mile 8.6.

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

Late Run Kenai River Chinook Inseason Summary for Fri. Jul 24

KENAI RIVER LATE-RUN KING SALMON SUMMARY #06

King Salmon Run Update:

Estimation of the late-run began on July 1, the cumulative estimated passage through July 23 is 4,970 large king salmon. The optimal escapement goal is 15,000 – 30,000 large king salmon. Inseason assessment of the king salmon run consists of the sonar at RM 14 on the Kenai River mainstem, a sport angler creel survey of the lower river, inriver test netting for age, sex, length composition, and sampling of king salmon harvest in the east side set net commercial fishery. These ongoing information sources, along with historical data allow ADF&G managers to formulate inseason run projections of estimated escapement, harvest, and total run of large Kenai River king salmon. Figure 1 is a table of the 2020 projections using data that is available on July 23. The inseason projection of escapement using the historical mean run timing is approximately 12,200 fish. Inseason run projections do fluctuate while we are still early in the run (37% mean run timing) and confidence intervals will narrow further as the run approaches the average midpoint on July 26.

In response to the inseason projections of escapement being less than 15,000 large king salmon, ADF&G issued emergency order 2-KS-1-41-20, which closes sport fishing for king salmon on the Kenai River drainage, including catch-and-release, effective 12:01 a.m. Friday, July 24 through 11:59 p.m. Friday, July 31, 2020. The Kenai River Late-Run King Salmon Management Plan states: if the projected late run escapement is less than 15,000 king salmon 75 cm mid eye to tail fork the department shall close the sport fisheries in the Kenai River and the salt waters of Cook Inlet north of the latitude of Bluff Point to the taking of king salmon. In addition, it shall close the commercial drift gillnet fishery in the Central District within one mile of the Kenai Peninsula shoreline north of the Kenai River and within one and one-half miles of the Kenai Peninsula shoreline south of the Kenai river; and close the commercial set gillnet fishery in the Upper Subdistrict and the Central District.

                                                                                                                                                      

The next inseason summary will be updated July 28.

Fishery Update:

Fishing success was reported as fair to poor this week. CPUE data collected from the netting program indicates the catch of all sizes of king salmon is below average and catch of large king salmon is on the 5-year average. The creel survey of sport anglers indicates above average catch for king salmon of all sizes.

The preseason outlook for the 2020 late-run can be found at:

http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fishing/pdfs/sport/byarea/southcentral/2020KenaiLateRunOutlook.pdf.

Water Conditions: 

Water levels as of July 22 in the Kenai River are below average in the upper river and average in the lower river. Water temperature is slightly above average.

CFS at Soldotna Bridge was 13,800 and 9.36 ft

CFS at Skilak Lake Outlet was 12,200 and 11.20 ft

CFS at Cooper Landing was 6,060 and 10.43 ft

Water Temperature was 56 degrees Fahrenheit at the sonar site.

This information was compiled based on raw and historical data for inseason management purposes.

Final data is subject to change.

Figure 1. 2020 Inseason Summary Estimates for Kenai River Late-run Large Chinook Salmon

Sonar data thru: 23-Jul   ESSN Summary          
Current Inriver Chinook Assessment Information ESSN Total Chinook Salmon harvest 818 (Fish Ticket Catch Report)
Most Recent Daily Sonar 183 ESSN Large Chinook Harvests (all stocks) Based on Inseason Length Data 221
Cumulative Sonar to Date 4,970 Percentage Large Chinook in ESSN Sample Thru 23-Jul 27%  
Est. Creel Harvest to Date 0 Min, mean, and max of Large ESSN Chinook that were of Kenai origin (2010-2018 data)        
Creel Harvest Above Sonar 0 Kenai Large Contribution   60% 69% 79%  
Creel Harvest Below Sonar 0 ESSN Large Kenai Harvest to Date 133 152 174  
Creel All Sizes of Chinook 67 ESSN Projected Kenai Large Harvest 133 152 174  
                     
                     
Projected end of season estimates for large late-run Kenai River Chinook salmon.         
Run Timing Run to Date Estimated run to Sonar RM14 Estimated inriver run (includes spawning & harvet below sonar) Estimated Escapement (includes spawners below sonar) Estimated Sport Harvest Above Sonar RM 14 to Skilak Lake Estimated Sport Harvest Below Sonar RM 14 Estimated Total Inriver Sport Harvest Estimated ESSN Harvest Estimated Total Run Estimated Exploitation
On time 42.05% 11,818 12,340 12,241 67 32 99 152 12,460 2.02%
                     
Early Timing Scenarios                
1 early 44.98% 11,049 11,539 11,440 67 32 99 152 11,691 2.15%
2 early 47.85% 10,386 10,848 10,749 67 32 99 152 11,028 2.28%
                     
Late Timing Scenarios                
1 late 39.30% 12,645 13,201 13,102 67 32 99 152 13,287 1.89%
2 late 36.75% 13,525 14,117 14,018 67 32 99 152 14,167 1.77%
* Retention of king salmon is prohibited in personal use fisheries for 2020