Kenai Chinook Estimates, Indices and Inseason Run Summaries


Location: Kenai River (Chinook)
Species: Chinook - Late Run
Method: Sonar

The selected years are color-coded in the graphs below:

  • 2026
  • 2025
  • 2024
  • 2023
  • 2022
Daily Counts

* graphs are images and may be cached by browser

 Cumulative

Description: In 2015 the department began managing Kenai River king salmon runs using an ARIS sonar station located at river mile 14. In 2017 the Department modified the Kenai River king salmon escapement goals from goals based on king salmon of all sizes, to escapement goals based on large king salmon (fish over 34 inches) only. The early-run king salmon optimal escapement goal range is 3,900 to 6,600 large king salmon (> 34 inches). In 2020 the late-run king salmon escapement goal was modified to an optimal escapement goal range is 15,000 to 30,000 large king salmon (> 34 inches). The ARIS sonar counts found on this page are the daily and seasonal cumulative passage estimates of the number of large king salmon passing the sonar site. Additionally, the past years counts displayed on this page have been converted to large fish counts for comparison. These estimated numbers of large king salmon passing the sonar site are the primary tool for the Kenai River king salmon assessment program that also includes a sport angler harvest survey, and a netting program. The data gathered in these assessments are used together to determine king salmon run strength. This data in conjunction with Fishery Management Plans, allows fishery managers to determine if emergency order regulation changes to the fisheries are needed during the season to help ensure that the escapement goals are achieved. These abundance assessments as well as information about the status of the run and inseason management actions can be viewed via this website on the above tabs. Information is also available by telephone at (907)262-9097.

Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Early Run: 3,900 - 6,600
Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Late Run: 15,000 - 30,000 (Graphed above)

Contact: Area Management Biologist,
9072602920

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

58 records returned for the years selected. Dashes indicate days with no count.
[Export results in Excel format or JSON format]

Date
2026		 Count
2026		 Cumulative
2026		 Cumulative
2025		 Cumulative
2024		 Cumulative
2023		 Cumulative
2022		 Notes for
2026
Aug-27 - 0 15,015 6,630 13,922 13,425  
Aug-26 - 0 15,015 6,630 13,776 13,425  
Aug-25 - 0 15,015 6,630 13,679 13,425  
Aug-24 - 0 15,015 6,630 13,612 13,425  
Aug-23 - 0 15,015 6,630 - 13,425  
Aug-22 - 0 15,015 6,630 - 13,425  
Aug-21 - 0 15,015 6,630 13,436 13,425  
Aug-20 - 0 14,884 6,630 13,257 13,425  
Aug-19 - 0 14,824 6,630 13,111 13,425  
Aug-18 - 0 14,722 6,582 12,911 13,338  
Aug-17 - 0 14,553 6,534 12,747 13,253  
Aug-16 - 0 14,469 6,510 12,552 13,124  
Aug-15 - 0 14,312 6,408 12,381 12,961  
Aug-14 - 0 13,987 6,306 12,161 12,779  
Aug-13 - 0 13,709 6,240 12,045 12,567  
Aug-12 - 0 13,486 6,143 11,814 12,257  
Aug-11 - 0 13,245 6,070 11,559 11,887  
Aug-10 - 0 13,051 6,008 11,347 11,626  
Aug-09 - 0 12,852 5,917 11,111 11,407  
Aug-08 - 0 12,653 5,790 10,844 11,270  
Aug-07 - 0 12,274 5,687 10,424 11,124  
Aug-06 - 0 11,985 5,349 9,677 10,875  
Aug-05 - 0 11,810 4,932 9,313 10,487  
Aug-04 - 0 11,593 4,817 9,058 10,024  
Aug-03 - 0 11,327 4,624 8,889 9,711  
Aug-02 - 0 10,797 4,298 8,555 9,377  
Aug-01 - 0 10,207 4,056 7,960 9,001  
Jul-31 - 0 9,508 3,875 7,582 8,686  
Jul-30 - 0 8,864 3,682 7,260 8,189  
Jul-29 - 0 8,015 3,519 6,980 7,825  
Jul-28 - 0 7,521 3,308 6,725 7,394  
Jul-27 - 0 7,244 3,133 6,481 7,077  
Jul-26 - 0 6,853 2,952 6,250 6,531  
Jul-25 - 0 6,522 2,777 5,880 6,136  
Jul-24 - 0 6,384 2,626 5,467 5,675  
Jul-23 - 0 6,161 2,503 5,036 5,329  
Jul-22 - 0 5,902 2,286 4,600 4,927  
Jul-21 - 0 5,595 2,244 4,309 4,539  
Jul-20 - 0 5,360 2,123 4,114 4,142  
Jul-19 - 0 5,258 2,002 3,811 3,832  
Jul-18 - 0 4,963 1,827 3,708 3,419  
Jul-17 - 0 4,710 1,658 3,544 2,982  
Jul-16 - 0 4,337 1,489 3,016 2,655  
Jul-15 - 0 3,958 1,317 2,469 2,352  
Jul-14 - 0 3,633 1,097 2,244 2,147  
Jul-13 - 0 3,434 848 1,886 1,890  
Jul-12 - 0 3,193 745 1,654 1,751  
Jul-11 - 0 2,838 681 1,369 1,597  
Jul-10 - 0 2,498 520 1,163 1,475  
Jul-09 - 0 2,172 423 1,018 1,162  
Jul-08 - 0 1,895 320 733 950  
Jul-07 - 0 1,323 277 575 731  
Jul-06 - 0 1,100 247 484 537  
Jul-05 - 0 895 175 393 404  
Jul-04 - 0 685 96 314 307  
Jul-03 - 0 421 48 211 222  
Jul-02 - 0 246 36 120 172  
Jul-01 - 0 120 24 60 123  

Non-Sonar Tools

Late Run Netting Project CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at river mile 8.6.

Late Run Sport CPUE Index

The Sport Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon in the lower Kenai River and is based on the success rate of anglers fishing downstream of the Sterling Highway Bridge Crossing in Soldotna.

Late Run Netting Project Large Fish CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at the sonar station located at river mile 8.6.

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

Late Run Kenai River Chinook Inseason Summary for Fri. Jul 30

KENAI RIVER LATE-RUN KING SALMON SUMMARY #05

King Salmon Run Update:

The cumulative estimated passage through July 29 is 5,636 large king salmon. The optimal escapement goal is 15,000 – 30,000 large king salmon. Inseason assessment of the king salmon run consists of the sonar at RM 14 on the Kenai River mainstem, a sport angler creel survey of the lower river, inriver test netting for age, sex, length composition, and sampling of king salmon harvest in the east side set net commercial fishery. These information sources, along with historical data allow ADF&G managers to formulate inseason run projections of estimated escapement, harvest, and total run of large Kenai River king salmon. Figure 1 is a table of the 2021 projections using the most current data. The inseason projection of escapement using the historical mean run timing is approximately 9,961 large fish. Inseason run projections continue to stabilize at this point in the run (55% AVG run timing) and will solidify as the run progresses towards the end of the month.

In response to the inseason projections of escapement being less than 15,000 large king salmon, ADF&G issued emergency order 2-KS-1-46-21, which closes sport fishing for king salmon on the Kenai River drainage, including catch-and-release, effective 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, July 21 through 11:59 p.m. Saturday, July 31, 2021. The Kenai River Late-Run King Salmon Management Plan states: if the projected late run escapement is less than 15,000 king salmon 75 cm mid eye to tail fork the department shall close the sport fisheries in the Kenai River and the salt waters of Cook Inlet north of the latitude of Bluff Point to the taking of king salmon. In addition, it shall close the commercial drift gillnet fishery in the Central District within one mile of the Kenai Peninsula shoreline north of the Kenai River and within one and one-half miles of the Kenai Peninsula shoreline south of the Kenai River; and close the commercial set gillnet fishery in the Upper Subdistrict and the Central District. Additionally, ADF&G issued an emergency order prohibiting the use of bait and multiple hooks in the Kenai River from the outlet of Skilak Lake downstream to the mouth effective 12:01 a.m. August 1 through 11:59 p.m. August 15, 2021.

Fishery Update:

CPUE data collected from the netting program indicates a catch of all sizes and large king salmon are below average.

The preseason outlook for the 2021 late-run can be found at:

http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fishing/pdfs/sport/byarea/southcentral/2021KenaiLateRunOutlook.pdf

Water Conditions: 

Water levels as of July 29 in the Kenai River are average throughout the lower and middle river. The Upper River is below average and falling. Water temperature is above average.

CFS at Soldotna Bridge was 13,400 and 9.27 ft

CFS at Skilak Lake Outlet was 12,000 and 10.93 ft

CFS at Cooper Landing was 5,360 and 10.19 ft

Water Temperature was 54 degrees Fahrenheit at the sonar site.

This information was compiled based on raw and historical data for inseason management purposes.

Final data is subject to change.

Figure 1. 2021 Inseason Summary Estimates for Kenai River Late-run Large Chinook Salmon

Sonar data thru: 29-Jul   ESSN Summary          
Current Inriver Chinook Assessment Information ESSN Total Chinook Salmon harvest 1,234 (Fish Ticket Catch Report)
Most Recent Daily Sonar  340 ESSN Large Chinook Harvests (all stocks) Based on Inseason Length Data 271
Cumulative Sonar to Date 5,636 Percentage Large Chinook in ESSN Sample Thru  29-Jul 22%  
Est. Creel Harvest to Date  134 Min, mean, and max of Large ESSN Chinook that were of Kenai origin (2010-2018 data)        
Creel Harvest Above Sonar  70 Kenai Large Contribution   60% 69% 79%  
Creel Harvest Below Sonar  64 ESSN Large Kenai Harvest to Date  163 187 214  
Creel All Sizes of Chinook  342 ESSN Projected Kenai Large Harvest 166 187 219  
                     
                     
Projected end of season estimates for large late-run Kenai River Chinook salmon.          
Run Timing Run to Date Estimated run to Sonar RM14 Estimated inriver run (includes spawning & harvet below sonar) Estimated Escapement (includes spawners below sonar) Estimated Sport Harvest Above Sonar RM 14 to Skilak Lake Estimated Sport Harvest Below Sonar RM 14 Estimated Total Inriver Sport Harvest Estimated ESSN Harvest Estimated Total Run Estimated Exploitation
On time 58.07% 9,706 10,184 9,961 143 79 223 187 10,295 3.98%
                     
Early Timing Scenarios                
1 early 60.84% 9,264 9,724 9,501 143 79 223 187 9,852 4.16%
2 early 63.73% 8,843 9,285 9,063 143 79 223 187 9,432 #DIV/0!
                     
Late Timing Scenarios                
1 late 55.56% 10,145 10,641 10,418 143 79 223 187 10,733 3.82%
2 late 52.83% 10,667 11,185 10,963 143 79 223 187 11,256 3.65%
* Retention of king salmon is prohibited in personal use fisheries for 2021